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No.40
No.40 ,Economy  May 08, 2017

Interviewing an Expert on International Trade
Efforts to Implement the TPP Fail — Exercise Leadership to maintain a high level of trade negotiations

The TPP is an agreement that was reached to create a huge value chain in the Asia-Pacific region. With its implementation becoming uncertain, what role is expected of Japan in trade negotiations? Editorial department of Wedge: Why does it make sense for Japan to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as soon as possible, while President-elect Trump says that he will announce the United States’ withdrawal from the TPP on the day of his inauguration? Urata Shujiro: The TPP will be implemented if either the twelve nations complete the domestic procedures within two years after signing in February 2016, or if more than six nations accounting for 85% of the total GDP of the twelve nations complete them, even after two years have passed. I do not expect that Trump will change his campaign promises before the mid-term election. That said, even if the United ... ... [Read more]

No.40 ,Economy
May 03, 2017

Views on the Chinese economy:
Step-by-step Action on Capital Outflows
― Avoiding a hasty transition to a floating system

< Key Points > Reform state-owned enterprises to promote private sector development Strengthen the financial system to prevent international capital outflows Liberalize trade and investment to avoid friction with the United States China’s economic growth rate for 2016 was 6.7%, a persistent slowdown from the peak of 2010 (10.6%) in the post-Lehman shock period. The economy has clearly shifted from high growth to medium growth. This is due to both long-term and structural factors affecting the Chinese economy and medium-term factors triggered by domestic and overseas economic changes in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis. Long-term and structural factors relate to China’s trend towards a lower potential growth rate. Specific factors include (1) a peak-out in the country’s working-age population (aged 15–64), (2) reduced labor movement from rural to urban areas (passing of Lewis’ turning point), (3) lower growth in public infrastructure ... ... [Read more]

No.40 ,Economy
May 02, 2017

Is U.S.-Japan Trade Friction Avoidable?
Stay Resilient with Fair Arguments against Unfair Criticism
―Japan must not accept import obligations

< Key Points > Free trade and investment promotion should be addressed through economic dialogues Japan must accelerate structural reforms in agriculture, which is heavily protected by high tariffs Japan is compelled to accept the invitation to the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations with the United States It has been a little over one month since the inauguration of Donald Trump as the President of the United States. His political style remains unpredictable without a clear logical approach, leaving the entire world guessing with serious uncertainties. The US government is faced with quite a few lingering risk factors, particularly with respect to its international trade policies. I am deeply concerned about the Trump administration’s attitude, which looks as though it is prepared to disregard the principles of non-discrimination or the international tariff agreements that have been embraced by the World Trade Organization (WTO) over ... ... [Read more]

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