Akane Tomoko (Judge, International Criminal Court) and Philipp Osten (Professor, Keio University) An Arrest Warrant for Putin ――Russia’s military actions in Ukraine are still continuing, with widespread killing of civilians and destruction of infrastructure. Judge Akane, you were one of the judges involved in the decision at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Can you tell us about what is currently going on with the investigation?   Akane Tomoko: All of this is unfolding as we speak, with plausible risks for the victims’ safety and the investigations, and as a Judge, being an impartial actor, some things are difficult to discuss. What I can confirm is that, following a request by the ICC Prosecutor who was investigating the situation, the three Judges of Pre-Trial Chamber II, to which I belong, ... ... [Read more]

  Liu Yenfu (Reporter, Analysis Department, Toyo Keizai Inc.) vs Wakabayashi Masahiro (Professor Emeritus, Waseda University) From two time axes Liu Yenfu: For the past few years, there has been a lot of discussion about a Taiwan emergency. While discussions on deterrence against China are progressing in Japan, there is also the view that the situation is not so dire and that “emergency is a fiction.” From the standpoint of having studied Taiwan for a long time, how does Professor Wakabayashi view the current situation?   Wakabayashi Masahiro: I would like to look back on how Taiwan appeared in international political history and how it has been treated from two different timelines. First, there is a long timeline starting from the 17th century. Within this long timeline, there were four times when Taiwan became the focus of war-related events. The first was in the ... ... [Read more]

  Naraoka Sochi, Professor, Kyoto University   When we look back on the history of Japanese diplomacy since the Meiji period (1868–1912), what kind of consistency is there to find? I shall attempt to consider some of the challenges of today in light of the history of value-oriented diplomacy.   Since the first Abe administration (2006–2007), it has been said that Japan pursues a “value-oriented diplomacy” based on universal values, which includes basic policies like the “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” and a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” Conversely, more conventional Japanese diplomacy has seldom been seen as having put values at the forefront. But what was the actual situation? I don’t think Japanese diplomacy was as thoroughly realist as people usually imagine. Rather, I think it has been quite consistent in the sense that it has actively accepted and emphasized the values that underpin ... ... [Read more]

  Takeuchi Shinichi, Professor, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies Impact of UN General Assembly Resolution About a year and a half has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Over time, it became clear that this war would deeply affect the international order and prompt its reorganization. It has the character of a proxy war between Russia and the West, which supports Ukraine. Therefore, each country’s stance toward this war naturally implies an evaluation of the international order led by the West. This war also revealed the fact that the current international order was not as supported by the world as Western countries had thought. In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning Russia on March 2, 2022. Of the 193 member states, 141 voted in favor, while nearly 30% of the total abstained (35), did not vote ... ... [Read more]

  President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who visited Japan for the G7 Hiroshima Summit, associated “post-reconstruction” Ukraine with Hiroshima. As the holder of the G7 presidency and as a country providing reconstruction assistance in Ukraine, what does Japan need to do at this time?   Higashino Atsuko, Professor, University of Tsukuba   “I will never forget the attention you have paid to Ukraine and especially the support you have expressed for the sovereignty of Ukraine, its territorial integrity, and the Ukrainian people.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who attended the G7 Hiroshima Summit in Hiroshima in May this year, thanked Prime Minister Kishida Fumio with these words. The world’s eyes focused on this president of a country currently under invasion from Russia as he arrived in faraway Hiroshima. Various reports from after the summit suggest that the Japanese government was initially hesitant to have President Zelenskyy ... ... [Read more]

  Sahashi Ryo, Faculty Fellow, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Associate professor, Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, University of Tokyo   In June 2023, Antony Blinken became the first U.S. secretary of state to visit China in about five years. Even after a Chinese reconnaissance balloon incident derailed his plan to visit China earlier this year, the Biden administration remained motivated to implement the visit. While insisting on great power competition with China, it has consistently sought to explore dialogue with China. Why does the Biden administration continue to explore diplomacy with China’s Xi Jinping regime? One background factor is that the Biden administration has a unique sense of balance. While fully understanding that China’s growth and behavior run counter to U.S. interests and values, it seems to attempt to manage the deterioration of bilateral relations. President Joe Biden calls for ... ... [Read more]

  Ishida Toru, Professor, Department of International Relations, The University of Shimane Introduction: The Contemporary Position of “Zhonghua” in Japan and South Korea The notion of the “Rising China” started to gain prominence in the mid-1990s. It became more tangible around the time of the Beijing Olympics, and China’s nominal GDP surpassed that of Japan in 2010. Towards the end of November 2012, General Secretary Xi Jinping visited the National Museum of China and delivered a post-study lecture during the “Road of Rejuvenation” exhibition. Reflecting on China’s history since its defeat in the Opium War 170 years earlier, Xi Jinping stated, “[…] what is the Chinese dream? We believe that realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the greatest Chinese dream of the Chinese nation in modern times,” and introduced the slogan “Chinese Dream.” The “Chinese Dream” encompassed both the “Dream of ... ... [Read more]

  Miyagi Taizo, Professor, Chuo University The current situation of “Abe’s strong line without Abe” What have been the trends and directions of Japanese diplomacy in recent years? And what kind of diplomatic line may await Japan in the future? In this paper, I position foreign relations after the Koizumi Junichiro administration (2001–2006), meaning during and beyond the First Abe Shinzo administration (2006–2007), as contemporary, or modern, Japanese diplomacy directly related to the current situation. Iokibe Makoto, a diplomatic historian, once argued that there were three lines of Japanese postwar diplomacy: the “social democratic line,” “the economocentric line,” and the “traditional state line” (Iokibe Makoto ed. Sengo Nihon gaikoushi (The Diplomatic History of Postwar Japan), Yuhikaku). The “social democratic line” was a diplomatic initiative of the Japan Socialist Party, which advocated unarmed neutrality, and the “economocentric line” was the “Yoshida Doctrine” of light arms ... ... [Read more]

  What will change with the revision of the three security documents? An expert in military history unravels their history and future.   Chijiwa Yasuaki, Senior Fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies A revision that clarifies Japan’s own responsibilities Attempts at unilateral change of the status quo by force are gaining momentum in the Japanese periphery. The new “three security documents” approved by the Cabinet in December 2022 should be received with a sense of urgency and a recognition of the reality of the situation. The topmost of the three security documents is the National Security Strategy (NSS). In light of this, the “National Defense Strategy” (NDS) (the former “National Defense Program Guidelines” [NDPG]) defines defense goals and approaches as well as means to achieve them. Moreover, the “Defense Buildup Program” (the former “Medium Term Defense Program” [MTDP]) is a medium- to long-term buildup ... ... [Read more]

  Ogasawara Yoshiyuki, Professor, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies Taiwan’s next presidential election in 2024 will not only set Taiwan’s direction, but also have a major impact on the future of the U.S.-China conflict and the stability of East Asia. It is also a matter of great concern to Japan. In Taiwan, “skepticism,” which questions the intentions and actions of the United States, is gradually spreading. The content of “skepticism about the U.S.” differs depending on the commentator, but the common feature is that “relying on the United States will lead to a disastrous end for Taiwan.” Some say, “If we rely on the U.S., the U.S. will not act, and Taiwan will be abandoned by the U.S. in the end,” while others say, “If we do as the U.S. says, Taiwan will be used as a pawn to suppress China. In the end, ... ... [Read more]