Key points China’s peaceful unification policy and cross-Strait relations are pluralistic. Weak Democratic Progressive Party government, China plans to unseat it in 2028 In addition to defense capabilities, international cooperation is necessary to protect democracy   Matsuda Yasuhiro, Professor, The University of Tokyo   Taiwan’s presidential and Legislative Yuan elections were held on January 13, 2024, and William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected president. This time, as there were three strong candidates, Lai’s vote share was only 40.05%, and the ruling party is expected to fall short of a majority in the Legislative Yuan election, resulting in a “weak DPP” government. The international community has been paying close attention to the presidential election because of fears that a war could break out in the Taiwan Strait, following in the footsteps of Russia and Ukraine, and Israel and the ... ... [Read more]

  Mimaki Seiko, Associate Professor, Doshisha University   Japan may soon see its first “feminist foreign minister.” There is such hope in Kamikawa Yoko, who assumed the position of Foreign Minister in September 2023. Since her appointment, Foreign Minister Kamikawa has offered a female perspective to conflict prevention and peacebuilding, and has enthusiastically promoted the “Women, Peace and Security (WPS)” initiative, which aims for more sustainable peace. A task force within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was launched at the end of January. This task force is comprised of regional bureaus that handle bilateral relations with other countries, the International Cooperation Bureau, which handles Official Development Assistance (ODA), and more. At the task force launch meeting, Foreign Minister Kamikawa expressed her desire to “utilize a WPS perspective in an all-Japan manner” in cooperation with other ministries and agencies. She also spoke of her eagerness ... ... [Read more]

  Kajitani Kai, Professor, Kobe University Graduate School   Recently, there has been a growing awareness in Japan of the importance of “evidence” in reporting and policymaking. Especially when making decisions about highly opaque topics like China, which is my specialty, it is extremely important to support and verify evidence such as statistical data. On the other hand, some voices are sounding the alarm that politicians and large corporations are waiving evidence and objectivity while ignoring the small voices of those affected, causing divisions in society. While there are some valid aspects to this criticism, I cannot agree with an attitude that places too much emphasis on individual narratives. Rather, we should pay attention to how much of the “evidence” that the government and others present is “falsifiable” by third parties. For example, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more attention has ... ... [Read more]

  Endo Ken, Professor, University of Tokyo The Current State of the Japan-South Korea Relationship As far as the Far East is concerned, changes have resulted from the ongoing US-China conflict and the war in Ukraine in three dimensions: the Korean peninsula, Japan-South Korea relations, and the Taiwan situation. Let us begin with the Korean peninsula. The situation on the peninsula undergoes rapid change. The framework of cooperation that was symbolized by the Six-Party Talks of 2003–2007 has long since broken down, replaced by the bloc-like constellations of Japan, the United Nations, and South Korea on one hand, and China, Russia, and North Korea on the other. In addition to North Korea’s military expansion, both qualitative and quantitative, China and Russia have shifted to positions closer to North Korea in the United Nations Security Council, China-North Korea trade has apparently started to resume, and ... ... [Read more]

  Key points Rapid growth with coexisting developed- and developing-country challenges Shifting to a mindset that prioritizes sustainability and equity Concern over the low number of Japanese young people studying abroad in Asia   Endo Tamaki, Professor, Saitama University   2023 will be the 50th Year of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation, and a summit meeting is scheduled for December in Tokyo. Over the past 50 years, the relationship between Japan and ASEAN, as well as Asia’s economy and society, has changed significantly. Asia’s rapid economic development has progressed while economic interdependence within the region has deepened. After World War II, Asia was known as a region of poverty and stagnation, but it has shown what has been called a “miracle” of high economic growth and has emerged as an emerging Asia, despite facing several crises. In the 21st century, the GDP share of Asia, ... ... [Read more]

  Oba Mie, Professor, Kanagawa University   When ASEAN was established in August 1967, Japan’s interest in the organization was low. However, since the mid-1970s, Japan’s policy toward Southeast Asia began to emphasize the unity of ASEAN and to promote friendly cooperation with it. This came at a time when Japan was being forced to make a major review of its policies towards the region, with Southeast Asian countries facing harsh scrutiny over Japan’s economic overpresence and ODA. The 1973 Japan-ASEAN Synthetic Rubber Forum is now considered the starting point for Japan-ASEAN friendship and cooperation. Prime Minister Fukuda Takeo’s Manila speech (the so-called Fukuda Doctrine) in 1977 was another extremely important event for the development of friendship and cooperation between Japan and ASEAN. Currently, there are no serious issues of concern between Japan and the ASEAN countries that have become politicized. On the contrary, ... ... [Read more]

  Akane Tomoko (Judge, International Criminal Court) and Philipp Osten (Professor, Keio University) An Arrest Warrant for Putin ――Russia’s military actions in Ukraine are still continuing, with widespread killing of civilians and destruction of infrastructure. Judge Akane, you were one of the judges involved in the decision at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands to issue an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Can you tell us about what is currently going on with the investigation?   Akane Tomoko: All of this is unfolding as we speak, with plausible risks for the victims’ safety and the investigations, and as a Judge, being an impartial actor, some things are difficult to discuss. What I can confirm is that, following a request by the ICC Prosecutor who was investigating the situation, the three Judges of Pre-Trial Chamber II, to which I belong, ... ... [Read more]

  Liu Yenfu (Reporter, Analysis Department, Toyo Keizai Inc.) vs Wakabayashi Masahiro (Professor Emeritus, Waseda University) From two time axes Liu Yenfu: For the past few years, there has been a lot of discussion about a Taiwan emergency. While discussions on deterrence against China are progressing in Japan, there is also the view that the situation is not so dire and that “emergency is a fiction.” From the standpoint of having studied Taiwan for a long time, how does Professor Wakabayashi view the current situation?   Wakabayashi Masahiro: I would like to look back on how Taiwan appeared in international political history and how it has been treated from two different timelines. First, there is a long timeline starting from the 17th century. Within this long timeline, there were four times when Taiwan became the focus of war-related events. The first was in the ... ... [Read more]

  Naraoka Sochi, Professor, Kyoto University   When we look back on the history of Japanese diplomacy since the Meiji period (1868–1912), what kind of consistency is there to find? I shall attempt to consider some of the challenges of today in light of the history of value-oriented diplomacy.   Since the first Abe administration (2006–2007), it has been said that Japan pursues a “value-oriented diplomacy” based on universal values, which includes basic policies like the “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” and a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” Conversely, more conventional Japanese diplomacy has seldom been seen as having put values at the forefront. But what was the actual situation? I don’t think Japanese diplomacy was as thoroughly realist as people usually imagine. Rather, I think it has been quite consistent in the sense that it has actively accepted and emphasized the values that underpin ... ... [Read more]

  Takeuchi Shinichi, Professor, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies Impact of UN General Assembly Resolution About a year and a half has passed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Over time, it became clear that this war would deeply affect the international order and prompt its reorganization. It has the character of a proxy war between Russia and the West, which supports Ukraine. Therefore, each country’s stance toward this war naturally implies an evaluation of the international order led by the West. This war also revealed the fact that the current international order was not as supported by the world as Western countries had thought. In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution condemning Russia on March 2, 2022. Of the 193 member states, 141 voted in favor, while nearly 30% of the total abstained (35), did not vote ... ... [Read more]