With the rise of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), the “tax barrier” suddenly emerged. How did the DPP’s electoral strategy come about, and who supported it? And to what extent will the expansion of tax exemptions actually reduce the burden, and on whose behalf? Let’s consider a system that can bring real voices into politics. Two reasons for this focus The issue of the “1.03-million-yen barrier[1]” suddenly became the focus of political discussion, and the media reported on it extensively day after day. This is none other than a measure to significantly raise the current income tax exemption limit from 1.03 million yen to 1.78 million yen, and is the flagship policy of the DPP, which made a breakthrough by quadrupling its number of seats in the general election on October 27, 2024. If the new limit is really 1.78 million yen, ... ... [Read more]

  On the day the Lower House election was announced, I watched the movie Civil War (Japanese title: Shibiru Uo: America Saigo no Hi). It was written and directed by Alex Garland. The title Civil War refers to the civil war that divided America. The protagonist, an American camerawoman who has covered many battlefields, reflects that her past overseas reporting aimed to warn her homeland. However, now her home has become a battlefield. Her colleague comments that she has lost sight of journalism’s purpose.Indeed,despite having lost sight of their original purpose, the women continue their grueling reporting, but for what reason? Neither the women themselves nor the audience watching can fully understand, as the movie progresses. The movie depicts the civil war as if it has already started. Little attention is paid to the circumstances of why and how it came to be.  It ... ... [Read more]

  2024 was an election year in which national elections were held around the world. Initially, some people thought there would be no election in Japan in 2024. However, in October, the Lower House was dissolved with one year left in its term, and a general election was held. Then, for the first time in 30 years, a minority ruling party was born, and Japanese politics is at a turning point. What does this mean? Let us delve deeper into this turning point. The last general election for the Lower House was held in October 2021, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by President Kishida Fumio, won a landslide victory. It also won the regular election for the Upper House in July 2022. The term of the Lower House members will expire in October 2025, and the regular election for half of the ... ... [Read more]

The approval ratings of the opposition parties are still not rising. If the opposition parties want to change the government, they should not compete with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on the conservative-progressive axis. A leading political scientist discusses the strategy the opposition parties should adopt. Is it “the eve of a change of government”? The Kishida LDP (Liberal Democratic Party), which was not very popular to begin with, has been in turmoil since the end of last year, 2023, due to the so-called “slush fund scandal.” According to a survey by Jiji Press (the same source for the figures in the following polls), the Cabinet’s approval rating at the time of writing (April 2024) was at an extremely low 16.6%, and the LDP’s approval rating has also continued to decline over the past six months, falling to 15.3%. If this trend continues in ... ... [Read more]

  Oguma Eiji, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University What is “liberal”? Even in Europe and America, there is no agreed-upon definition. In terms of economic and social policies, it is sometimes used in Western Europe to mean “laissez-faire,” but in the United States it is also used to mean large government spending.[1] “Liberal” has different meanings depending on the history and political context of the country. So what is “liberal” in postwar Japan? How does it relate to security policy, which has been the main axis of conflict in Japanese party politics from the postwar period to the present, and to pacifism, which was enshrined in the postwar constitution? This paper examines these two questions against the historical background of postwar Japan. This paper has four parts. First, I will review the historical evolution of the term “liberal” in Japanese political coverage. Second, ... ... [Read more]

  Key points Elections are manipulated to stay in power in authoritarian countries Political division and growing electoral fraud also in democratic countries Administrations calling snap general elections when it suits them should also be scrutinized   Higashijima Masaaki, Associate Professor, University of Tokyo   This year, 2024 is a year with elections around the world. In addition to the United States and Russia, which have a major influence on international politics, national elections are also planned in regional powers such as Indonesia, India, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, and other neighboring countries and regions. Depending on the ongoing political funding issue, a dissolution of the Lower House and a general election may also be on the horizon in Japan. Elections have long been synonymous with representative democracy. What are the implications of the upcoming elections in so many countries for the future of the ... ... [Read more]

  Shimizu Yuichiro, Professor, Keio University Factional politics have once again become an issue. It was discovered that the largest faction, the Abe faction (Seiwa Political Analysis Council, Seiwakai), has engaged in fraudulent accounting with regard to political funding to the party. Moreover, it was found that the Nikai faction (Shisuikai), led by shrewd former secretary-general Nikai Toshihiro, and the Kishida faction (Kochikai), to which the current prime minister belongs, have had similar problems. The revelations have prompted strong criticism of factional politics. In response, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio quickly announced that he would dissolve his faction, Kochikai. Kochikai was founded by Ikeda Hayato (1899–1965), known for his Income Doubling Plan. As it inherits the lineage of Yoshida Shigeru’s (1878–1967) Liberal Party, it considers itself part of the “conservative mainstream” and is the third faction, which has produced five prime ministers as well as ... ... [Read more]

  The percentage of female Diet members in Japan is 10.0% in the Lower House and 26.0% in the Upper House. The figures for the Lower House are particularly low, ranking 165th out of 190 countries in the world (all figures are from the Gender Equality Bureau Cabinet Office, April 11, FY2023). What does it show that there are still fewer women? We will take a closer look at the current situation where people are loudly calling for the elimination of the gender gap, and expose the real problems.   Miura Mari, Professor, Sophia University How do we view the gender gap in politics? Various reports and indicators indicate that Japan has a large gender gap, so there is no need to explain it again. The political realm plays an important role in bridging this gap. The Diet creates laws and allocates budgets, and ... ... [Read more]

  On August 24, 2023, Advanced Liquid Processing System (ALPS) treated water was released from the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, sparking a huge debate both domestically and internationally. A particular focus was on how to respond to China’s tough stance. However, the series of treated water releases exposed many problems in Japanese politics, society, and discourse. An international politics expert familiar with economic security and a sociologist who continues to study the Fukushima issue discuss Japan’s challenges and blind spots.   Suzuki Kazuto (Professor, Tokyo University Graduate School of Public Policy) vs Kainuma Hiroshi (Associate Professor, Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies, Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Information Studies, The University of Tokyo) Discourse surrounding treated water that felt very strange Kainuma Hiroshi: I have known Professor Suzuki for about 10 years since I worked with him as a member of ... ... [Read more]

  Even though the Kishida Fumio administration’s approval rating is declining, support for the opposition parties remains flat. Consider a “narrow path” for opposition parties to emerge as an alternative that poses a threat to the Liberal Democratic Party.   Yamamoto Kentaro, Professor, Hokkai-Gakuen University Support for opposition parties remains flat It has been a long time since the current administration’s approval rating has declined while the opposition party’s approval rating has not increased. If opposition parties are seen as having a certain degree of credibility, support for the ruling party should be inversely proportional to support for the opposition parties. However, even though various opinion polls show that the Kishida Fumio administration’s approval rating is on the decline, support for the ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), remains high and stable, and support for the opposition parties remains flat. Recently, the approval ... ... [Read more]