Southeast Asian countries have dealt with the major powers through loose cooperation. There is much Japan could learn from ASEAN’s pragmatism.   Suzuki Sanae, Associate Professor, University of Tokyo A history of freedom in foreign and security policy and standoffs Amid ongoing US-China tensions, the stance of ASEAN member countries towards the United States, China, and other extra regional countries appears to differ, with divisions and standoffs among ASEAN members being pointed out. However, from a historical perspective, several factors need to be borne in mind.  First, ASEAN was never a military alliance to begin with and does not prevent its member countries from formulating their own foreign and security policies in line with their own national interests. If anything, such a large degree of freedom has allowed for loose cooperation and collaboration. At one time in the 1970s, Malaysia proposed the neutralization ... ... [Read more]

  Inoue Masaya, Professor, Keio University   Confrontations between the United States and China over the Taiwan Strait are intensifying. Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, China has stepped up military pressure on Taiwan. General Secretary Xi Jinping (President of China), who was exceptionally elected to a third term at the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held once every five years, in October, has stressed that China will not renounce its right to use force against Taiwan. In response, US officials have stated that China has become more determined to pursue annexation of Taiwan at an earlier time than previously. It is unclear how much the US is aware of signs of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But as the US-China conflict is escalating from a trade dispute to a military confrontation over the Taiwan Strait, Japan’s ... ... [Read more]

    Eto Naoko, Professor, Gakushuin University   Key points Formal continuation of collective leadership as a means of consolidating the power structure Attempt to shift the legitimacy of the CCP to the manifestation of socialism Need for Japan to share legally enforceable international rules with China   The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) concluded on October 22, announcing its policies and appointments to the Central Commission. The following day, on the 23rd, with the new leadership inaugurated at the 1st plenum of the 20th CCP Central Committee, the way was paved for General Secretary Xi Jinping’s long-term government as he was reappointed for a third term. This marked the end of the “system-based transfer of power” mechanism, which had been emphasized as a lesson of the Mao Zedong administration period that had brought major disruptions and setbacks. The four ... ... [Read more]

  With the world heading toward division due to the logic of the major global powers, we should turn our attention once again, not to Europe and the United States, or China and Russia, but to the emerging and developing countries—with their multilateral dynamics, working on multiple levels—as key players in population scale, economic power, and order building.   Endo Mitsugi (Professor, University of Tokyo), Nakao Takehiko (Chairman, Mizuho Research and Technologies) and Kawashima Shin (Professor, University of Tokyo)   Kawashima Shin: Over the last few years, the world has been undergoing major changes—with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and accompanying global high prices, primarily for energy and food—and the impact is spreading globally. Looking at international reports of Japan, however, most of the news is focused on the United States and China. Even when Asia and Africa are discussed, situations ... ... [Read more]

  President Xi Jinping has shown a clear support for Russia. However, the war situation became mired in a mess beyond expectations, and Western countries united with sanctions against Russia. This has severely narrowed the options for Chinese diplomacy. As the “New Cold War” between the United States and China accelerates, the author examines the impact of the Ukraine war on Taiwan.   Matsuda Yasuhiro, Professor, University of Tokyo In 2021, China reached for the North Korea and Russia cards after feeling threatened by the Joe Biden administration’s closing in on China. It is in this context that North Korea restarted their full-scale missile launches and Russia invaded Ukraine. Why has China endorsed the Russian invasion of Ukraine? At the Beijing Olympic Winter Games, Russia was subjected to official sanctions due to doping issues, and even though Russian athletes were unable to participate in ... ... [Read more]

  Iwashita Akihiro, Professor, Hokkaido University   Fukuzawa Hideo, an inhabitant of the Habomai Islands, one of the four Northern Territories, has this to say about the Russian invasion of Ukraine: “It brought back strong memories of how Russia expelled us from our island. A TV report showing crying children under attack in Ukraine reminded me of myself at the time.”  On August 18, 1945, when the Soviet Union army began its invasion and occupation of Shumushu Island at the northern edge of the Kuril Islands of Japan, there was fierce fighting with the Japanese army units they encountered. Japan had already accepted the Potsdam Declaration on August 14 and implemented “disarmament” of the Southern Kurils (Etorofu and Kunashiri), Shikotan and Habomai Islands. It therefore offered no resistance to the Soviet occupation after the battle of the Northern Kurils. Many Japanese soldiers were sent ... ... [Read more]

  Countries involved in war waver between the pole of fundamental resolution and the pole of compromise peace. Immediate peace is not always the absolute preference. When will ceasefire talks begin and who will be the mediator? This article explores how wars end based on the mechanisms of war and peace.   Chijiwa Yasuaki, Senior Fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies   It appears that the Russia-Ukraine War will be protracted. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed willingness to mediate in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine. Germany, France, Italy and other countries are also exploring options for an early ceasefire, but there have been no significant moves toward war termination. At the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, observers predicted a quick and overwhelming victory for Russia and exile for the Zelensky government. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky decided ... ... [Read more]

  Akiyama Nobumasa, Professor, School of International and Public Policy and the Graduate School of Law at Hitotsubashi University   The Russia–Ukraine War has highlighted a number of questions regarding the nature of security in relation to nuclear weapons. For instance, we have two questions: “Will nuclear weapons actually be used?” and “Does the stability–instability paradox shape US behavior?” meaning whether Russia’s nuclear threats have restricted the United States and Europe from engaging in the conflict, thereby making the invasion of Ukraine possible. These two questions point to extremely important difficult issues when considering the future international order for nuclear weapons. Does the operation of Russia’s nuclear arsenal in the Russia–Ukraine War signal the start of the “Third Nuclear Age” with a growing need for nuclear deterrence premised on the use of nuclear weapons (Takahashi Sugio, “Viewpoint: Ukrainian crisis: The beginning of the ‘Third ... ... [Read more]

  How can we revive the post-WWII international order that has been damaged by Putin’s war? I believe now is the time to envision a new postwar order. The proactiveness and creativity of Japanese diplomacy will be tested as we head toward the construction of a security framework that links NATO and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) as well as a platform for highly effective disarmament and arms control.   Iwama Yoko, Professor, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)   The world is always full of injustice and destruction, so simply perpetrating unlawful violence is not in itself enough to destroy the social order. Unless the act presents a fundamental challenge to the institutions that maintain the order, the basic order is maintained regardless of the amount of violence. Putin’s war has been going on for quite some time now, but why ... ... [Read more]

  How should the international community face up to a superpower that is growing increasingly inward-looking due to the US-China conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukrainian war?   Kajitani Kai, Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University   As COVID-19 continued to spread in early 2022, Shanghai City in China entered a total lockdown on March 28. The lockdown lasted more than two months. The outside world found out from social media that many residents were exasperated and stressed by uncertainty about the future, and that the lockdown delayed distribution and caused difficulties with food deliveries. By June, the lockdown was finally lifted, but activities remain heavily restricted. Even if they do not go as far as total lockdown, many cities implement a policy of dynamic zero-COVID whereby, if a single infected person is found in an apartment building, residents are not allowed ... ... [Read more]