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No.16
Discussions, Diplomacy, No.16  Oct. 8, 2013

Accidental Explosion or Maturity? The Future of China’s Expanding Military Power — Capability and Intentions Analyzed by Former Senior Leaders of the Japan Self-Defense Forces

Koda Yoji Former Commander in Chief, Self-Defense Fleet (Vice Admiral) of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force

Numerical analysis reveals the formidable raw power of the Chinese military  Koda Yoji: Fear and anxiety about China’s People’s Liberation Army has been spreading in Japan as China has rapidly expanded its military spending in recent years, but its real capability is relatively unknown. I am afraid this story is taking on a life of its own. Today I would like to discuss matters related to China’s military power by calmly analyzing it, because if we overestimate or underestimate its power we won’t be able to deal with it properly as a nation.  Yamaguchi Noboru: First, let’s begin by confirming China’s defense budget. According to the Chinese government, China’s defense spending reached $90.2 billion in 2011, an eighteen-fold increase over the past twenty years. China has been regularly doubling its defense budget every five years. This reflects the growth of China’s GDP. Incidentally, the ... ... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 6, 2013

(JAPAN POLITICS CHANGED?) Will Japan Heed the Doctors’ Warning?

The book Megachange: The World in 2050 by journalists of The Economist magazine in Britain offers a pessimistic forecast for Japan in the middle of the current century. Professor Matake Kamiya examines the book’s prescriptions. The world’s most aged society will emerge in Japan in 2050, when the median age will climb to 52.3 years and the number of dependents will be neck and neck with the working age population. The annual GDP growth rate during the period between 2011 and 2050 will average 3.7 percent worldwide, 5.2 percent in developing countries in Asia, and among developed countries, 2.3 percent... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, KUDO_Yasushi, Nos.13-15  Mar. 4, 2013

(ASIA PIVOT) New U.S. and Chinese Administrations, Japan’s Diplomatic Vector

New administrations were established in the United States, China and other parts of the world in 2012. Three experts who have been closely involved in Japan-U.S. and Japan-China relations discussed the diplomatic roles Japan should play amid the rise of China and the shift in U.S. policy focus toward the Asia-Pacific region. Coordinator: Yasushi Kudo, representative of The Genron NPO (editor-in-chief, chairman of the editorial board of Discuss Japan-Japan Foreign Policy Forum). Panelists: Yuji Miyamoto, representative of the Miyamoto Institute of Asian Research and former ambassador of Japan to China.... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 4, 2013

(ASIA PIVOT) Early Establishment of U.S.-Style NSC

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a landslide victory in the House of Representatives election on Dec. 16 under the slogan “Restore strength to Japan.” He was interviewed on Jan. 24, 2013 about his foreign policy, plan to revive the Japanese economy through so-called “Abenomics” and other policy matters.... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 4, 2013

FOR REFERENCE: Prime Minister Abe's policy speeches, press remarks

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s latest policy speeches Press Conference on TPP (Read…) Policy Speech by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to the 183rd Session of the Diet (Feb. 28, 2013)(read…) “Japan is Back” Policy Speech at CSIS (read…) Press Conference during visit to the United States (read…) Policy Speech to the 183rd Session of the Diet (Jan. 28, 2013) (read…) The Bounty of the Open Seas: Five New Principles for Japanese Diplomacy (read…)... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 3, 2013

(ASIA PIVOT) International Order in the "Pacific Century"

“Atlantic Century” to “Pacific Century” The world order is undergoing a massive, earth-shaking transformation: the center of global politics is shifting from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. With a new international environment in the making, we must significantly adjust the paradigm of how we view the world. Otherwise, we will run the danger of misreading future developments in international politics. Until the “Age of Exploration” began, the Mediterranean Sea used to be the center of world politics. Upon the discovery of the... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 3, 2013

(ASIA PIVOT) Dynamics of Power Shift from U.S. to China–Asia-Pacific Security and Japan’s Foreign Policy

The security situation in the Asia-Pacific region is changing dramatically. If a power transition stemming from the rise of emerging countries led by China proves inevitable, the international situation surrounding Japan will become unprecedentedly tough. Accordingly, the security strategy and foreign policy of Japan in an “era of transition” are coming under the spotlight. “20-Year Crisis” and Asia-Pacific Region A key point in devising a mid-term and long-term foreign policy for Japan will be an awareness and ability to envision the... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 3, 2013

(ASIA PIVOT) Geostrategic Market Bursting the China Bubble

Photo : Steven Clemons

For quite a number of years, it seemed as if China could do no wrong. While America was deploying treasure and blood in wars in the Middle East, China was on a global charm offensive, using its huge built up investment capital to seduce nations around the world to understand that China meant more to their future than other nations or multilateral organizations. I once asked the head of policy planning in China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs what China’s grand strategy was and was told, “China’s grand strategy is to keep America distracted by small Middle Eastern conflicts.” While this was meant as a joke, there was a serious nugget of truth in what he said. While America had become King of the Hill after the Cold War, America was busily... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 3, 2013

(ASIA PIVOT) Roles of East Asia and Japan in 2032 — U.S. Supremacy to Remain Unshaken

I am wondering how the international order will change 20 years from now. Will China as an emerging power become a hegemonic nation? Where will Japan stand in international society? In this essay, I will consider the outlook for power politics in East Asia and ways toward Japan’s rehabilitation as a global actor. History is my specialty. Historians analyze past events but do not make future projections. Nevertheless, historians know one thing about the future, namely that no one knows about the future. In 1945 when Japan lost the last war, was there anyone who could predict the nation’s rapid economic growth that began a... [Read more]

No.15
Diplomacy, Nos.13-15  Mar. 3, 2013

(ASIA PIVOT) Japan Should Build Comprehensive East Asia Strategy

Main points: — Rebuild U.S.-Japan relations on the basis of the changes in its surrounding environment — Establish a trilateral framework between Japan, the United States and China to enhance military confidence-building — Participate in the making of economic rules under the Trans-Pacific Partnership Over the past 10 years, the U.S.-Japan relationship has changed significantly. As in “Operation Tomodachi” carried out by the... [Read more]