In this article, I would like to discuss some of the points that are crucial to Japan’s economic outlook for 2020. First, we should examine whether or not the Japanese economy has peaked out. A reference date related to a peak or a bottom in a business cycle is determined by the Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet Office. It usually takes more than a year for them to determine whether a peak or a bottom has actually occurred in a business cycle because their judgments require comprehensive statistical information pertaining to a certain period of time. This suggests that the government research institute may have missed an opportunity to announce a reference date of a business-cycle peak in a more timely manner simply because comprehensive statistical data are not yet available for them to make a judgment. This assumption sounds extremely ... ... [Read more]

Paul Volcker, a legendary policy man and the former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), published a new book Keeping at It in 2018 at the age of 91. It is a book that allows us to sense the creed of Volcker, who continues to call for the maintenance of healthy finance. Maybe we should say it is an irony, but in August 2018 there was a move to render the Dodd-Frank law, which focuses on the Volcker Rule that restricts the market transactions of banks, ineffectual. That is, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to revise the Dodd-Frank law. This law had come out of reflections following the economic downturn precipitated by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, which resulted in the global financial crisis. It seems that the sense of crisis that prevailed at that time has already become ... ... [Read more]

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The world is now facing an historic and major change in trends and structural transitions. In this context, I would like to reexamine the position of Japan and discuss the direction, potential, and issues related to Japan in the future. What becomes apparent through this attempt is the variety of gaps and traps that are embedded in Japan. There is a gap between Japan and other countries that is caused by a major change in global trends and Japan’s consistent failure to respond to the shifting currents. There is also a gap in awareness about issues and policy opinions between the younger generation and the elderly generation in Japan, which has led to the advent of an aging society in which Japan has become a typical silver democracy. Moreover, as I mentioned in the Editors’ Blog, there is a gap between the image of ... ... [Read more]

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