“The world is facing the largest energy crisis in history.” Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued this warning during the initial phase of the crisis, when Iran launched its de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It was by no means an exaggeration. Although some countries increased production and expanded transport via alternative routes, approximately 10% of the global crude oil supply was lost in March 2026 when the crisis began, and the situation has remained volatile ever since. Naturally, the impact has also extended to petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and other energy resources. As early as March 11, the IEA announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves. The volume released was the largest in history, more than double the amount released during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This demonstrated just how ... ... [Read more]

China has released a trade restriction list explicitly naming Japanese companies, schools, and other entities. How should we interpret the meaning of this rule “change” by China, and how should Japan respond? Professor Watanabe Mariko provides her analysis. Moving from economic coercion as a message toward legal regulation China has been establishing its system of security exceptions since 2020 The playing field is shifting to legal systems, which conversely will weaken the basis for economic coercion On February 24, 2026, China placed twenty Japanese companies, institutions, and organizations—including the National Defense Academy of Japan and several research institutes—on the Entity List (trade restriction list) established under its Export Control Law. In addition, China placed a further twenty Japanese companies and universities on a “watch list,” an instrument it applied for the first time. It is dangerous to view this as “merely a measure targeting ... ... [Read more]

The international community is being tossed about by the actions of US President Donald Trump, including the attacks on Iran. Amidst this chaotic international situation, the Japan–US alliance, the axis of Japanese diplomacy, stands at a major crossroads. Six months after she took office, how should we evaluate the diplomacy of Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae? And where should Japanese diplomacy head from here? The Bungeishunju editorial department spoke with Nakanishi Hiroshi, a professor at the Graduate School of Kyoto University specializing in international politics, who served as an expert member of the Advisory Panel on Reconstruction of the Legal Basis for Security established under the Abe Shinzo administration. The year 2026 opened with astonishing news as the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela, detaining President Maduro and his wife. At the end of February, a large-scale attack on Iran was carried out, ... ... [Read more]

At a time when defense spending is expanding worldwide, if properly designed, it can serve as a catalyst for transforming economic structures. This article provides a multifaceted analysis of its impact on the Japanese economy. Vladimir Lenin, who established the Bolshevik administration during the Russian October Revolution (November 1917), sent a telegram to the Army Commander-in-Chief on November 29, 1918. “As our troops push on westward and into the Ukraine, provisional regional Soviet governments are being formed to back up the Soviets in the localities. This has the advantage of depriving the Ukrainian, Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian chauvinists of a chance to regard our troop movements as occupation and of creating a favourable situation for further advance” (Lenin’s Collected Works, Progress Publishers, Moscow, 1965, Volume 28, pg. 225). Imperial Russia had fallen, but Ukraine and the Baltic states were not permitted their independence. A ... ... [Read more]

China’s dominance in rare earth element (REE) production stems from low mining and refining costs and vertical integration across the industry. Securing a stable supply of REEs requires international cooperation grounded in a long-term strategy. REEs are essential to improving both technical and environmental performance The key indicator is not the size of mineral reserves but the cost of industrial use Japan must contribute to building a stable international supply chain In February 2026, speaking at an outdoor campaign rally in Okayama Prefecture, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae was reported to have made a statement to the effect that Japan had successfully recovered rare-earth-rich mud from the seabed at a depth of 6,000 meters off Minamitorishima Island, and that Japan would therefore face no shortage of rare earth elements (REEs) for either the current generation or the next. However, this recovery forms part of a ... ... [Read more]

This year 2026 marks the 30th anniversary of the death of Shiba Ryotaro (1923–96). Even after the passage of so much time, Shiba’s works continue to be widely read. The cumulative circulation of Saka no Ue no Kumo (Clouds Above the Hill: A Historical Novel of the Russo-Japanese War), which deals with the Russo-Japanese War (1904–05), has reached 19.7 million copies. Meanwhile, Ryoma ga Yuku (Ryoma!: The Life of Sakamoto Ryoma), which depicts the turmoil of the Bakumatsu period (the late Tokugawa shogunate [1603–1867]) centering on Sakamoto Ryoma (1836–67), has reached a staggering 25 million copies. The large number of salaried workers among his readers is another prominent characteristic. The May 1996 special extra issue of Bungeishunju[1] contains many essays by figures in the business and bureaucratic sectors who had been avid readers of Shiba’s works since their youth. In response to Shiba’s passing, ... ... [Read more]

In an era marked by a harsh geopolitical environment and the growing weaponization of the economy, how should Japan redesign its preparedness? Sagara Yoshiyuki presents a novel framework bridging national defense with fiscal, financial, and supply-capacity resilience, formulated by the Study Group on the Integrated Strategy for Defense, Economic and Fiscal Policy. Amid Escalating Great-Power Competition The security environment surrounding Japan has become exceptionally severe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has continued for over four years, with modern warfare being forged on the battlefield in cycles of mere weeks. China’s formidable military power has expanded from the periphery of Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands to the east of Iwo Jima, shifting the balance of power in the Pacific. North Korea is experiencing a surge in demand as it mass-produces and supplies artillery shells and missiles to Russia through its robust military production base. This deepening ... ... [Read more]

The world has entered a new “interwar period” laden with unprecedented risks. Japan is now called upon to pursue a more autonomous survival strategy. Multiple wars involving the United States and Russia are interconnected, and the crisis continues to expand In addition to stepping up self-reliance efforts, Japan should advance the diversification of its security cooperation Japan needs to shift its relations with China from a “strategic and mutually beneficial” relationship to one of “adversarial coexistence” Due to the ongoing war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, the Middle East has fallen into a state of turmoil. Even if a full-scale ceasefire is established in the future, things will likely never return to the state they were in before the attacks. Meanwhile, Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine and is intensifying its paramilitary attacks on Europe. Military cooperation among Russia, China, and North ... ... [Read more]

Against the backdrop of the US-China confrontation, coalitions in support of free trade are becoming increasingly active around the world. Kumagai Satoru reexamines the logic of emerging economies and the approach of the United States, which uses “Trump tariffs” to rein in these countries. US-China confrontation presents trade expansion opportunities for many emerging countries. China is attempting to deepen relations with the West and emerging countries using “market opening” as its weapon. Japan should place greater weight on the future potential and strategic value of ASEAN. In recent years, countries known as the “Global South” have been increasing their presence in the international community. Behind this shift lie factors such as the US-China confrontation that has continued since 2018 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Amid this shift, the dynamics of the international order are changing significantly. On April 2, 2025, US ... ... [Read more]

Is a Consumption Tax Cut Necessary? In her policy speech to the Diet (February 20, 2026), Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae announced that, in order to alleviate the burden on middle- and low-income households “struggling with tax and social insurance burdens as well as rising prices,” the government will proceed with discussions within a bipartisan “National Council on Social Security” (hereinafter “National Council”) regarding “comprehensive reforms of social security and taxation systems, including designing a system for refundable tax credits.” At the same time, she stated that as a transitional measure until the implementation of a refundable tax credit system, the reduced tax rate on food and beverages would be set to zero. The resulting revenue loss, which amounts to over 5 trillion yen annually, will be managed “without relying on deficit-financing bonds,” and the tax cut period will be implemented “for a limited duration ... ... [Read more]