Against the backdrop of the US-China confrontation, coalitions in support of free trade are becoming increasingly active around the world. Kumagai Satoru reexamines the logic of emerging economies and the approach of the United States, which uses “Trump tariffs” to rein in these countries. US-China confrontation presents trade expansion opportunities for many emerging countries. China is attempting to deepen relations with the West and emerging countries using “market opening” as its weapon. Japan should place greater weight on the future potential and strategic value of ASEAN. In recent years, countries known as the “Global South” have been increasing their presence in the international community. Behind this shift lie factors such as the US-China confrontation that has continued since 2018 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Amid this shift, the dynamics of the international order are changing significantly. On April 2, 2025, US ... ... [Read more]

Is a Consumption Tax Cut Necessary? In her policy speech to the Diet (February 20, 2026), Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae announced that, in order to alleviate the burden on middle- and low-income households “struggling with tax and social insurance burdens as well as rising prices,” the government will proceed with discussions within a bipartisan “National Council on Social Security” (hereinafter “National Council”) regarding “comprehensive reforms of social security and taxation systems, including designing a system for refundable tax credits.” At the same time, she stated that as a transitional measure until the implementation of a refundable tax credit system, the reduced tax rate on food and beverages would be set to zero. The resulting revenue loss, which amounts to over 5 trillion yen annually, will be managed “without relying on deficit-financing bonds,” and the tax cut period will be implemented “for a limited duration ... ... [Read more]

China is attempting to redesign the entire nation, including its economy and governance, into a form capable of withstanding conflict. Rather than obsessing over predictions regarding when a war might break out, Japan should address the pressures accumulating in peacetime and enhance the resilience of government decision-making and private infrastructure. What is the essence of China’s “preparation for war”? The “preparation for war” being pursued by China’s Xi Jinping administration does not directly imply an invasion of Taiwan tomorrow. However, it would also be a mistake to dismiss it as an empty political slogan. What is currently underway within the Chinese leadership is the process of restructuring peacetime governance, military operations, industrial policy, and national mobilization into a framework that can easily transition to a contingency setting. What Japan must observe is not predictions of dates regarding “when China will attack,” but rather the ... ... [Read more]

Dr. Iriye Akira, Professor Emeritus at Harvard University, passed away on January 27, 2026. After graduating from high school, Dr. Iriye moved to the United States to study using a scholarship from the Grew Foundation (known as the Grew-Bancroft Foundation). Joseph Clark Grew (1880–1965), after whom the foundation was named, served as the US Ambassador to Japan before World War II and was known for his pro-Japanese stance. The path that Dr. Iriye walked throughout his life seems to overlap with the history of postwar US-Japan relations. Dr. Iriye’s masterpiece on diplomatic history, Kyokuto Shin-chitsujo no Mosaku (originally published in English as After Imperialism: The Search for a New Order in the Far East, 1921–1931 in 1965), was a pioneering work of multi-archival research based on the collection and rigorous reading of primary sources in multiple languages. Furthermore, by exploring the policies of the ... ... [Read more]

  Hosoya Yuichi: With the inauguration of the Takaichi Sanae administration on October 21 last year, you assumed the post of Minister for Foreign Affairs for the second time. Immediately after taking office, you actively followed a busy diplomatic schedule together with the Prime Minister, starting with meetings related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and a Japan-U.S. Summit Meeting. Motegi Toshimitsu: From right after the launch of the administration, important diplomatic events followed one after another, and it turned into something of a rocket start as I attended many meetings. I made three successive overseas trips: ASEAN-related Summit Meetings (October 26–27) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministerial Meeting (October 29–31) in Gyeongju, the Republic of Korea; and a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting (November 11–12) in Niagara, Canada. In addition, by the end of December I had held ... ... [Read more]

Electoral System Reform as a Political Issue Along with the reduction of seats in the Lower House, radical reform of the electoral system has emerged as a major issue in Japanese politics. On October 20, 2025, upon the inauguration of the Takaichi Sanae administration, the “Coalition Government Agreement” signed between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) included a goal to reduce the number of Lower House seats by 10 percent. Furthermore, it incorporated a commitment to consider the abolition of the parallel electoral system (combining single-member districts and proportional representation, hereinafter “parallel system”) and the introduction of a multi-member district system (MMD). Although the bill was ultimately placed under continued deliberation, on December 5 of the same year, a bill was submitted to reduce the Lower House membership by 45 or more seats. This bill contained a provision for ... ... [Read more]

Building upon the unprecedented strengthening of Japan-India ties achieved under the Modi administration, both countries should articulate a vision for “the next decade” based on achievements to date. As we enter 2025, the diplomatic environment surrounding India is expected to become more challenging. The summit reached a broad agreement on security, the economy, and people-to-people exchanges. In addition to bilateral relations, strengthening multilateral relations is also important. The relationship between India and Japan is beyond just diplomatic relations; it is a cultural and trust based relationship. We see our progress in each other’s progress.   … I remember, when we started the Vibrant Gujarat Summit 20 years ago, Japan was one of the key partners. Just think about it, a developing country, a small state [Gujarat] organizing an investment summit, and a developed country like Japan being its partner. This shows how strong the ... ... [Read more]

  As the international order faces upheaval, ASEAN-Japan relations require a timely upgrade.　Professor Suzuki Sanae explores the key points and future directions of this partnership. Expand opportunities for Japan to deepen its understanding of ASEAN. Foster proactive participation in ASEAN cooperation projects. Lead Indo-Pacific cooperation through inclusivity and the rule of law.   In 2023, Japan and ASEAN celebrated the 50th anniversary of their friendship and cooperation. The relationship traces its origins back to 1973, the year the Japan-ASEAN Synthetic Rubber Forum was held. This forum was convened at the request of the ASEAN side to discuss the economic damage faced by natural rubber-producing and exporting countries, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, due to the expansion of Japan’s synthetic rubber exports. In the 1970s, ASEAN nations harbored deep-seated distrust toward Japan, fueled by postwar reparations, the influx of Japanese companies tied to official development ... ... [Read more]

In 2025, major powers intensified their diplomatic engagement with Central Asia. What is the strategy for Japan—a long-standing partner in the region—to ensure it does not “lose its presence”? Major powers hold an overwhelming advantage in terms of historical ties and economic scale. While China is strengthening logistics, Russia is struggling with its declining presence. Japan is required to leverage its accumulated diplomatic experience and demonstrate its “true commitment.” On December 20, 2025, the first Summit of the “Central Asia plus Japan” Dialogue was held. Originally, this summit was scheduled to take place in Astana, Kazakhstan, in August 2024 to coincide with the 20th anniversary of the “Central Asia plus Japan” Dialogue framework. However, due to an earthquake off the coast of Kyushu and the issuance of the Nankai Trough Earthquake Extra Information bulletin, then-Prime Minister Kishida Fumio canceled his visit, and the summit ... ... [Read more]

Diplomatic diversification is advancing among US allies. What possibilities do various minilateral frameworks offer? “Hedging-based cooperation” is expanding as a means to mitigate excessive strategic and economic dependence on the United States. Efforts are underway to restructure the Quad’s agenda, while new frameworks that do not include the United States are simultaneously emerging. Regional actors are increasingly seeking to “engage” in shaping a multilayered order, rather than being compelled to make a binary “choice” between competing systems led by the United States and China. In 2025, international politics reached a critical inflection point. Most significantly, the United States—Japan’s sole ally and the long-standing anchor of stability in the Indo-Pacific—has clearly begun to reorient its diplomatic course toward an “America First” policy under the second Donald Trump administration, emerging as a force that shakes the very foundations of the existing international order. However, the destabilization ... ... [Read more]